Midsize metros are occupying prime real estate in an annual analysis of America's 'best-performing' cities. Why?
Press pause on those big-city dreams. Maybe skip small-town living for now.
Midsize metros are occupying prime real estate in an annual analysis of America's 'best-performing' cities. Why?
Press pause on those big-city dreams. Maybe skip small-town living for now.
For those looking to plant roots in an affordable city with a growing job market and other opportunities for success, a midsize metro may be just right.
That’s a key takeaway from a newly released report by nonprofit the Milken Institute that assesses U.S. cities small and large across a range of factors that fuel and reflect economic success. While, yes, more traditional hubs for tech and other economic engines – think Austin, Texas, and Salt Lake City – land high on the list, they're joined by a good number of more under-the-radar locales.
Huntsville, Alabama, anyone? Fayetteville, Arkansas? Ogden, Utah?
Performers participate in a parade in Ogden, Utah. Ogden is No. 2 among large metro areas in a recent Milken Institute analysis of America's best-performing cities.
“The rise of midsized cities is one of the trends that really jumped out at us,” says Maggie Switek, a senior director of research at the Milken Institute and lead author of the report. “The areas where these cities have been performing quite well (are) precisely in cost of living and access to affordable housing and also the low cost of doing business, which is what has been attracting growth into these cities.”
The annual Best-Performing Cities report, shared first this year with U.S. News, analyzed 403 metropolitan areas across 13 metrics in three categories: labor market performance, high-tech impact and access to economic opportunities. Within its “large cities” rankings, areas home to less than 1 million people and concentrated in the South and West nabbed seven of the top 10 spots – a marked change from years past when at least half of the top 10 large metro areas boasted populations topping 1 million, researchers said.
Fayetteville is one of the largest cities in Arkansas, but its metro area population is far shy of 1 million. It ranked No. 7 among large metro areas in a new report's assessment of America's best-performing cities.
These relatively smaller areas could be considered “Goldilocks” cities of sorts – nodding to the juvenile home intruder’s “just right” preference in porridge temperature, as well as sleeping and sitting arrangements. Their occupation of prime real estate in the rankings highlights an ability to strike a balance between economic gains, urban living and the high costs or inequality that threaten to swoop in as well. Recent census data indicates a similar dynamic, pointing to population surges in “exurbs” on the outskirts of larger metro areas.
Take Ogden, Utah: While its approximate population of 700,000 may not fit neatly into the midsize range, it’s also “not what one would think of as a tremendous metropolis,” Switek says. Located 40 minutes north of Salt Lake City, Ogden is No. 2 overall among 200 large cities in the Milken Institute analysis – rising 24 spots year over year on the back of strong job and wage growth. A full three-fourths of its population can fairly comfortably afford their housing costs, and the area boasts the lowest measurement of income inequality among all big cities assessed.
Switek singles out Huntsville and Fayetteville, along with Colorado Springs, Colorado, as other examples of midsize cities with strong performances. Home to the University of Arkansas and the headquarters of Walmart in Bentonville, the Fayetteville metro area is a mainstay among the analysis’ top performers, and experienced 16% job growth in recent years. Construction employment in particular has been booming.
Anchored by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the Cummings Research Park, Huntsville is new to the rankings’ top 10 this year. The area has seen balanced economic growth and has done an “outstanding job in supplying affordable housing,” researchers said. Conversely, Colorado Springs – also new to the top 10 – is an area that struggles with affordable housing but excels in terms of having low income inequality.
Switek says each of those three cities has seen “tremendous” inflows of people moving there from elsewhere in the U.S. Which also begs the question: Why are people fleeing bigger cities?
The answer – in this economy – appears fairly obvious.
“At least some of the recent domestic migration patterns appear to be a response to the high costs of living in many large metro areas,” the Milken Institute report says.
Researchers specifically suggested that “housing affordability challenges” have played a role in more midsize metros ousting larger cities from rarefied air in the rankings. San Francisco, for instance, plummeted 99 spots to No. 126 among large cities year over year, and was previously a top 10 performer.
At the state level, a separate analysis from the National Association of Realtors based on data from the third quarter of 2023 says people have moved for job reasons to spots primarily in the Southeast and Southwest – like Georgia, South Carolina and Texas – because of their “strong job markets, relatively lower living costs, and attractive business environments.” On the flip side, states like California and Illinois led the way in the exodus of so-called job switchers.
Nadia Evangelou, director of real estate research and a senior economist for the realtors association, points out that the Greenville, South Carolina, area was named a “housing hotspot” for 2025 by the organization and has seen “very good migration trends.” In the Milken Institute report, the Greenville area – with a population that’s approached but not quite reached the 1 million mark of late – ranks No. 45 overall.
“These midsized areas not only have very good migration, but they also have other factors that we expect to perform better in 2025,” Evangelou says.